The United States appears unwilling to abandon its ambitions to bring Greenland under its influence. And if direct annexation has failed, they are ready to act more subtly through attractive deals and soft power.
According to Reuters, citing sources, Washington is developing a Compact of Free Association (COFA) for Greenland, offering the island generous perks: from mail delivery and crisis assistance to military protection.
In exchange, the U.S. would gain access to the territory for its military and duty-free trade.
If this sounds like a bribe...perhaps it is, but America knows how to get what it wants, bypassing any obstacles.
Greenland: Can’t Annex It? Then Buy It
Greenland, with its strategic Arctic location and reserves of rare earth metals, has been sparkling the imagination of American strategists for a long time.
Direct talk of purchasing the island, like in 2019, was met with mockery and outrage from Denmark.
But the U.S. isn’t backing up: if annexation doesn’t seem possible, then economic and military influence via COFA appears to be a very real plan.
Similar agreements already exist with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau, where each country received its own “benefit” in the form of financial aid or infrastructure projects, while the U.S. gained military footholds and trade benefits.
Greenland might be offered investment in its underdeveloped infrastructure, or access to American technologies for resource extraction.
In return, the Pentagon would likely want to deploy radars or even bases there to monitor the Arctic, a region where Russia and China are becoming increasingly active.
If Greenland agrees, it would effectively become a U.S. outpost, while formally retaining autonomy.
Can’t annex it? No problem, just make an offer they can’t refuse.
Canada: Next in Line?
It’s interesting that the U.S. ambitions seem to extend to their northern neighbor Canada.
Although Canada is a sovereign country and a G7 member, rumors that the U.S. would like to “bring it under control” have circulated for a long time.
Unlike Greenland, Canada is already deeply integrated into the American economy through agreements like USMCA (which replaced NAFTA), and its military security heavily depends on NORAD — the joint air defence system with the U.S.
But apparently, that’s not enough.
Imagine: the U.S. offers Canada a deal similar to COFA, but with even sweeter terms, such as unrestricted access to the U.S. markets or joint mega projects in the Arctic, like offshore resource development.
In return — more U.S. military bases in northern Canada, and possibly control over its Arctic territories.
It would resemble how the U.S. “tamed” Australia through AUKUS, where military cooperation gradually evolved into strategic dependence.
Canada, like Greenland, may face a dilemma: maintain full independence or succumb to the lure of American investment and protection.
Unlike Greenland, Canada has more leverage: a strong economy, vast resources, NATO membership.
But the U.S. pressure will be stronger too: from economic levers to cultural influence, which is already making Canadian cities like Toronto feel increasingly “Americanized.”
America always gets what it wants
History shows that the U.S. rarely backs up if it wants something.
Couldn't annex Panama? They built a canal and took control.
Couldn't trap Cuba? They imposed sanctions and hold on to Guantanamo.
Greenland and Canada are just the next chapters in this book.
For Greenland, COFA might become a “golden cage”: a formal freedom combined with American dominance.
For Canada, it may be a more subtle game, where economic integration and military cooperation gradually blur the lines of sovereignty.
The U.S., like a skilled chess player, is prepared to play the long game.
If it doesn’t work today, then they’ll come back tomorrow with a new deal, new investments, or even cultural exports.
Just like with Canada, where American brands and media already dominate.
If America wants it, it will find a way be it Greenland, Canada, or even Antarctica. The only question is the price and the timing.
Oleksandra Melnykova, Immigration and Refugee Consultant in Canada.
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